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Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? This important book offers an in-depth treatment of this question from a point of view not covered in existing works on time-series ec

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against

In this memoir, Michael Clements recounts growing up in the early days of stock car racing. From 1957 through 1965, his father, Louie, travelled the NASCAR circuit, bringing his wife and five childre

A new book for Paper 1, Prescribed Subject 4: Rights and ProtestThe renowned IB Diploma History series, combining compelling narratives with academic rigor.An authoritative and engaging narrative, wit

In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael Clements and David Hendry askwhy some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. Afterreviewing the conventi

Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always

With this work, Newman (marine science, College of William and Mary) and Clements (Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University) attempt to bridge the gap between

This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and prov

The papers included in this volume use careful textual analysis to explore theological and ethical ideas expressed in the Dead Sea Scrolls. Connections are drawn to the broader corpus of Second Temple

Tradition, Transmission, and Transformation presents fourteen papers delivered at the Thirteenth Orion Center International Symposium, which trace the development of interpretive traditions found in S