Tajikistan's Winter Energy Crisis ― Electricity Supply and Demand Alternatives

The purpose of Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis is to assist the Government of Tajikistan (GoT) in exploring ways to overcome electricity shortages due to rising demand for electricity. It focuses on investments and policy reforms in order to strengthen the financial, technical, and institutional capacities in the power sector and to prepare the Government for undertaking a major expansion of power supply capacity until the year 2020. The Study explores a range of supply and demand alternatives (e.g., thermal, run-of-river hydro, other renewables, energy efficiency and demand management) excluding the option of large hydropower plants especially those requiring storage capacities, given the complexity and delays in their establishment. The option of a large hydropower project in Tajikistan, such as Rogun, is being explored by the various studies conducted by the Government and has involved a long process of information sharing on the findings of the studies for consensus building among stakeholders including Tajikistan, riparian Governments and their various Civil Society Organizations. Such a process requires the assurance of international quality standards, and incorporation of the concerns of all stakeholders.Without prompt actions, as recommended by the Study to address the causes of Tajikistan’s electricity crisis in the next 4-5 years, the shortages could increase to about 4,500 GWh by 2016 - translating to over a third of winter electricity demand. Following the recommendations of the current Study, the GoT will be on the road to establishing a long term energy security in Tajikistan.