Figuring Out the Doha Round

The Doha Round marked its eighth birthday in November 2009, making it the longest running multilateral trade negotiation in the postwar era. Doha participants continue to disagree about prospective liberalization of agriculture and manufactures and have barely begun to consider reductions in barriers to trade in services. Negotiators have missed every deadline to conclude the talks, leading some to question the viability of the entire venture. After nearly nine years of inconclusive meetings, the trade talks are at a tipping point: A global trade deal is still possible with renewed political commitment to trade reform, but continued drift could result in the first outright failure of a multilateral trade round in the postwar era.

This policy analysis shows that the Doha Round can still be successfully concluded with a concerted push by the major trading nations. Contrary to the Doha doomsayers, the potential gains from proposals now on the table are significant, albeit not sufficient to close a deal. The authors estimate the trade gains and GDP gains from a prospective Doha deal that "tops up" existing commitments to liberalize agriculture, manufactures, and services. They also suggest what each of the major trading nations needs to do to ensure the successful completion of a Doha package that is both ambitious and balanced between the interests of developed and developing countries.

Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since 1992, was formerly the Maurice Greenberg Chair and Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (1996-98) and the Marcus Wallenberg Professor of International Finance Diplomacy at Georgetown University (1985-92). Hufbauer has coauthored numerous books on international trade, investment, and tax issues, including Global Warming and the World Trading System (2009), Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (2007), US Taxation of Foreign Income (2007), and US-China Trade Disputes: Rising Tide, Rising Stakes (2006).
Jeffrey J. Schott, senior fellow, joined the Peterson Institute in 1983. He was also a visiting lecturer at Princeton University (1994), adjunct professor at Georgetown University (1986-88), senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1982-83), and an official of the US Treasury Department in international trade and energy policy (1974-82). During the Tokyo Round of multilateral trade negotiations, he was a member of the US delegation that negotiated the GATT Subsidies Code. Since January 2003, he has been a member of the Trade and Environment Policy Advisory Committee of the US government. He is the author, coauthor, or editor of several books on trade, including Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations (2010), Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (2007), NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges (2005), and the WTO after Seattle (2000).
Woan Foong Wong has been a research analyst at the Peterson Institute since July 2009. She served at the Center for Public Policy Studies, a think tank in Malaysia. She graduated in 2009 from Oberlin College with high honors in a BA in mathematical economics.