Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are ba
Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are ba
Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framew
This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presen
This book provides a comprehensive up-to-date presentation of some of the classical areas of reliability, based on a more advanced probabilistic framework using the modern theory of stochastic proces
Risk assessment for terrorist threats is a field of growing importance throughout the world. A number of different approaches and methods are used for terrorist risk assessment based on a variety of p
This book presents a risk management framework designed to achieve better decisions and more desirable outcomes. It presents an in-depth discussion of some fundamental principles of risk management re
